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The energy front in the Russian-Ukrainian war is becoming increasingly serious: in recent weeks, there have been at least seven attacks on Ukraine’s natural gas production facilities, which have also disrupted the country’s gas supply. Ukraine is increasingly compensating for the shortfall with imports, and Hungary now plays a key role in this. Nearly half of Ukraine’s gas imports currently come from Hungary, which is redrawing the map of energy dependence in the region, confirms Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation’s study.
Before 2025, Russian strikes mainly targeted western Ukraine, especially gas storage facilities in Lviv province, where European traders previously stored significant amounts of natural gas, around 10 billion cubic meters. After Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas through the Brotherhood pipeline in early 2025, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and foreign companies and traders almost completely withdrew from these storage facilities, which are now used mainly by Ukrainian state-owned and domestic companies.
Chart: Ukrainian gas storage stocks by market participant
As of June 1, 2025
The current attacks have had an even greater impact on Ukrainian natural gas production: drone and missile strikes simultaneously hit two eastern Ukrainian provinces (Kharkiv and Poltava), where production is most significant, causing a decline of nearly 60 percent.
At the same time, the Russians are also employing a new strategy. At the beginning of the year, the aim of the attacks was to inflict as widespread damage as possible, affecting several provinces and cities, thereby making the problem a national one.
Ukraine has significant natural gas reserves and independent production capacity, which under normal circumstances can cover the country’s annual consumption. However, the war and repeated attacks are causing constant disruptions: production is often interrupted, delaying the filling of storage facilities and increasing the country’s dependence on imports.
Hungary’s role
Ukraine is trying to make up for the shortfall, which varies but is between 20 and 30 percent, by importing from neighboring countries. The main source is Hungary, but deliveries from Poland are also crucial. The volume of natural gas coming from Hungary has increased significantly in recent months and will account for 46% of Ukrainian imports by 2025.
Chart: Ukraine’s natural gas imports by country in 2025
The volume and share of natural gas from Hungary has been growing steadily since 2022. While Ukraine imported roughly 500 million cubic meters in 2022, which was about 2.5% of gas consumption at the time, this figure rose to 2.5 billion cubic meters in the first ten months of 2025. This represents about 14 percent of Ukraine’s gas consumption in 2025 and is expected to rise further by the end of the year.
The natural gas supplied to Ukraine does not originate from Hungarian production. Hungary acts as a transit country through which mainly European, but also Hungarian traders (such as the MET Group) typically supply Russian-origin gas to Ukraine, although not exclusively, writes Oeconomus.
This remains the most cost-effective route for Ukraine (the tariff is approximately €2.5-3/MWh), even though half of the imports, around 51%, are made under short-term capacity reservations, i.e. on a day-ahead basis and booked one day in advance.
This is favorable for traders as it reduces risk, but it is more expensive for Ukraine as short-term tariffs are higher, yet it is still worthwhile. For this reason, Hungarian transit has become strategically important.
Interestingly, some of the gas flows from Hungary not only to Ukraine, but also to Moldova and from there to Transnistria. Not all of the gas goes directly to Moldova: some of it is stored in Ukrainian storage facilities and only later withdrawn or exported when needed.
Although the exact amount is unknown, since February, when the agreement came into force, MET has delivered at least 180 million cubic meters, but the actual volume is likely to be slightly higher. This amount covers approximately 10% of Transnistria’s natural gas consumption.
For Ukraine, the greatest opportunities for gas imports are at the Slovak border, with a daily capacity of 42 million cubic meters, which amounts to more than 1.2 billion cubic meters per month. The disadvantage, however, is that the tariff here is the highest, at around €7 per megawatt hour. Hungary ranks second with a daily capacity of 9.75 million cubic meters, followed by Poland with 6 million cubic meters per day. Hungary is in a more favorable position in this respect, as its tariff is at the same level as Poland’s (between €2.5 and €3/MWh), but its capacity is greater and it can import from more locations, confirms the study.
Although the Slovak route has significant capacity, the price is almost three times higher than in Hungary.
In addition to Hungary, Poland also plays a key role in Ukraine’s gas supply. Gas from Norway and the US also reaches the country via this route through LNG terminals. American liquefied natural gas already accounts for nearly 10 percent of Ukrainian imports, and its volume is expected to continue to grow in the near future. This is partly due to political considerations, as Ukraine is seeking to strengthen its relations with the United States and win Washington’s support.
Chart: Volume of natural gas exported from Hungary to Ukraine
As of October 31, 2025
All this poses a serious challenge for the Ukrainian state, as in addition to the damage caused by the war, the shortage of money is becoming increasingly serious, while Russian attacks continue to cause significant new expenditure in this area as well. The coming winter therefore promises to be particularly difficult for Ukraine, concludes the study.
Via Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation; Featured image:Pixabay
The post Hungary Has Become Ukraine’s Most Important Gas Supplier appeared first on Hungary Today.
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