DALLAS — The race for the Republican Senate nomination in Texas is heading to a high-stakes runoff, with both sides digging in for a costly, drawn-out fight.
Longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are set to continue their bitter duel after neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold in Tuesday’s primary election.
That means the race, which has become one of the most expensive primary contests in history, will drag on until May 26.
COMBUSTIBLE REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY IN TEXAS HEADING INTO OVERTIME
Cornyn argues he is the only candidate in the field who can win a general election in the Lone Star State — something he has done four times — especially against rising star state Rep. James Talarico, D-Texas, who toppled Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, early Wednesday morning.
But for now, his focus is on Paxton.
“Just like the primary, we have a plan to win the runoff, and we are in the process of executing it,” Cornyn said Tuesday night. “Judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
Paxton has styled himself as the true MAGA candidate in the race, saying he stood with President Donald Trump when others did not, particularly after the 2020 election. He told supporters in Dallas that he felt the same energy behind his campaign as when Trump announced his re-election bid for a second term.
“Right now, I feel that same momentum, the same sense that history is turning,” Paxton said. “Now let’s talk about what just happened. John Cornyn spent around $100 million trying to buy this seat. We’ve spent around $5 million.”
“But we proved something they’ll never understand in Washington — Texas is not for sale,” he continued.
Both sides are leaning into their narratives: Cornyn casting himself as a battle-tested incumbent built for a general election fight, while Paxton presents himself as a Trump-aligned conservative who could breathe fresh life into the seat.
Cornyn has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, and along with it, a massive war chest of campaign cash.
NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez told Fox News Digital, “John Cornyn remains the only candidate who guarantees state Rep. Talarico never becomes a United States senator and ensures the fight for President Trump’s Senate majority is waged in true battleground states, not Texas.”
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the top super PAC backing Senate Republicans, which spent millions on behalf of Cornyn in the primary campaign, made it clear in a statement early Wednesday that it will continue to support the senator in the runoff.
“SLF and its sister organizations were proud to support Senator Cornyn early, and we look forward to him securing the Republican nomination on May 26,” the group’s executive director, Alex Latcham, said in a statement.
But on the Paxton side of the playing field, operatives and donors are confident they can unseat the senator.
Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and prominent Republican donor and bundler who supports Paxton, told Fox News Digital that “this was Cornyn’s shot to fend off his challenger by getting over 50%, and he couldn’t do it. The runoff voters will be even less friendly territory for Cornyn.”
Pointing to former longtime Senate GOP leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who has often acted as a Trump foil, Eberhart said, “This race is about MAGA vs. McConnell.”
Meanwhile, Lone Star Liberty, a pro-Paxton super PAC, circulated a memo ahead of Tuesday’s election that shrugged off threats that Cornyn would succeed in the runoff by continuing to hammer the attorney general over his litany of scandals, arguing there was nothing new to offer.
“Cornyn’s talk of ‘unleashing’ new attacks in the runoff is bluster,” the memo states. “The truth is that from day one, his forces fired every bullet they had. There are no new attacks left — only more of the same, at ever-greater cost and with ever-diminishing returns.”
But the most consequential variable in the race may not be millions of dollars in advertising spending or stump speeches. It may be whoever Trump decides to endorse.
So far, he has stayed out of the race. He signaled last month that he liked both Cornyn and Paxton, along with Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, who dropped out of the contest after trailing in third place.
Senate Republican leadership continues to believe that a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would effectively put the race to bed and allow the party to focus on the broader Senate battleground map. That endorsement could prove even more important beyond the primary battle.
A GOP political operative in Trump’s orbit told Fox News Digital that “Talarico being the nominee makes President Trump’s endorsement of Cornyn more important than ever.”
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