U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.
Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.
“There’s a big debate going on right now,” R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital.
Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.
“We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,” said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst.
Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations.
But such an operation would not be simple.
“It would take thousands to do that,” he said.
U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.
Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.
“You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,” Donegan said.
“You could stop every ship that comes out,” he added.
Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.
An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in “weeks, not months” and without ground troops.
“We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,” Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.
Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.
“The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,” said Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, said.
Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.
“Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,” Brew said. “There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.”
But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.
“The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,” Brew said. “If anything, its relative position may improve.”
That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.
Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.
“Iran does have four other export facilities,” Brew said.
Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, “can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.”
“Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,” Brew added.
That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.
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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of Iranian drones, rockets and missiles from the mainland.
“Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,” Brew said.
“They would be a very small force, very exposed,” said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.
“Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,” Robbins said.
Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.
“To what end would be the question,” Robbins said. “I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.”
President Donald Trump has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing “progress” in negotiations with Iran.
But Iranian officials have accused the president of “psychological warfare” and expressed skepticism.
Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment.
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