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For more than a century, energy resources have been fundamental elements of global geopolitical strategy.
Crude oil and natural gas are not merely commodities, but primary instruments of hard power. Their geopolitical significance stems from the fact that the functioning of modern economies and military mobility are unimaginable without them, while their geographical distribution is uneven, according to the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation’s analysis.
While oil is the engine of mobility, gas is the foundation of electricity generation and the chemical industry—together, they form a state’s energy sovereignty. Hungary’s energy security strategy is built on the three pillars of sovereignty, physical security, and economic stability. In recent years, the Hungarian government has taken proactive steps to ensure the country’s supply. By developing alternative routes—such as the Turkish Stream—along with long-term gas purchase agreements and an extensive interconnector network, Hungary has established physical security and the economic stability necessary to guarantee lower utility costs.
The possession of strategic resources has a direct impact on state survival and competitiveness.
This category includes traditional energy sources—such as oil, natural gas, and coal—as well as uranium, critical raw materials, water, and strategic transit routes. In the Oeconomus Foundation’s study, it is shown that since these resources are often sources of conflict, states consciously strive to reduce their dependence (diversification) or to gain control over supply chains.
Map: Strategic resources (crude oil, natural gas) are unevenly distributed geographically; 70% of reserves are located in the region marked by the ellipse. Created by: Viktória Németh. Source: Geoffrey Kemp & Robert Harkavy.
The Toolkit of Economic Coercion
Hard power is a state’s ability to achieve its objectives through direct coercion, threats, or material incentives—typically through military force or the exertion of economic pressure. Economic tools may include sanctions, trade embargoes, the freezing of foreign assets, or restrictions on technology exports. One of the most striking forms of economic coercion is the use of dependency as a weapon, such as disrupting supply chains or restricting exports, as we saw during the oil crises of the 1970s.
The oil crises of 1973 and 1979 first highlighted the West’s vulnerability. The Russian-Ukrainian gas disputes of the 2000s, meanwhile, demonstrated the risks of conflicts between transit countries and suppliers right on Europe’s doorstep. The EU’s countermeasures, such as the Nabucco pipeline project, failed due to a lack of political will among Western member states.
Milestones in the use of energy as a weapon throughout history
1. The first oil crisis of 1973–1974: The birth of the modern energy weapon
The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) decided during the 1973 Yom Kippur War to use oil as a political coercive tool. They imposed an embargo on Western countries supporting Israel—primarily the U.S. and the Netherlands—while reducing production by 5% each month. As a result, the price of oil quadrupled: from $3 to $12 per barrel. This move not only caused an economic recession in the West but also fundamentally altered the international balance of power, highlighting that military superiority is worthless without control over strategic resources. It was at this time that the International Energy Agency (IEA) was established to manage future crises.
2. The Second Oil Crisis of 1979: The Supply Shock and Vulnerability
The Iranian Revolution and the fall of the Shah did not begin as a deliberate use of energy as a weapon, but the geopolitical instability caused immediate panic in the global market. Iran’s exports fell drastically, creating a global shortage. Prices jumped from $15 to nearly $40. This event forced Western countries—particularly France and the U.S.—to build up strategic crude oil reserves and begin implementing nuclear energy and energy efficiency programs.
3. The 2006 and 2009 Russian-Ukrainian gas disputes: The trap of transit dependency
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, disputes over gas prices and transit fees were constant between Russia and Ukraine. In January 2006, after Ukraine refused to accept Gazprom’s price hike, Russia halted deliveries. Although the dispute lasted only a few days, pressure drops were observed in several EU Member States. January 2009 saw the most severe European energy crisis to date. A two-week complete gas cutoff ensued, during which Central Europe—particularly Bulgaria and Slovakia—struggled with heating difficulties in the middle of winter. Europe recognized that disputes between transit countries (Ukraine) and suppliers (Russia) affect European energy security. This marked the start of efforts to make gas pipelines bidirectional (reverse flow) and to build interconnectors, says the analysis by Oeconomus.
Via Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation; Featured image: Pexels
The post Why Energy Resources Remain the Deadliest Tool in Geopolitics appeared first on Hungary Today.
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