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“It is too good to be true” that the new governing majority will be able to simultaneously maintain family tax credits, increase family allowances, preserve tax exemptions for mothers, reduce the VAT rate, and distribute SZÉP cards to pensioners, political analyst Attila Tibor Nagy stated on Tuesday’s episode of the M1 channel’s program “48 Minutes.”
Attila Tibor Nagy noted that the first year or two of the Tisza Party’s government could be economically difficult, in part because it is inheriting a rather difficult situation from the Orbán government, hirado.hu reported. When asked whether the new government would have to implement unpopular economic measures, he said he fears it would.
Péter Magyar on the night of the elections. Photo: MTI/Hegedüs Róbert
He explained that last year’s budget closed with a deficit of roughly 5 percent of GDP, and there has been no meaningful economic growth for three years, which means that GDP growth is not generating the additional tax revenue that might have been expected in the past.
When asked about the practical steps needed to secure the EU funds allocated to Hungary, political analyst István Pócza responded that
the rule of law is a clear prerequisite, which Péter Magyar would address by rewriting, revising, or amending the constitution; he would not stand in the way of the €90 billion loan intended for Ukraine; and regarding migration, “the rules must be tweaked so that they meet European Union expectations.”
But there is a palpable sense of caution on the part of EU institutions toward Péter Magyar, because it is unclear what to expect from him, he noted.
Attila Tibor Nagy said that, just as was the case with Poland, he considers a political agreement between the European Commission and the Hungarian government conceivable in Hungary’s case as well, which would release EU funds.
Péter Magyar, however, is not in the same position as Donald Tusk, who has significant international political experience and a wide network of contacts.
Donald Tusk (C) with Ursula von der Leyen (L) and Roberta Metsola (R). Photo: EP/Alain ROLLAND
Regarding the migration pact, the political analyst said he sees room for Péter Magyar to potentially arrive at a formula for its implementation in Hungary that is “acceptable to the Hungarian public.”
Attila Tibor Nagy noted that it would not be in the European Commission’s interest to immediately put the new Hungarian government in an impossible position; they might ask Ukraine to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline. They will not do this for free:
in exchange for the oil, there could be an agreement that the Hungarian government will not block the approval of the loan to Ukraine.”
In the second half of the program, Attila Tibor Nagy explained that fully implementing the 14th-month pension is hard to imagine, just as tax exemptions for mothers are a “tough nut to crack” until there is 3–5 percent GDP growth.
He added that if Péter Magyar’s team can reach an agreement on bringing EU funds home, it could have an economic stimulus effect. However, the tenders still need to be issued, and the public procurement procedures must be carried out, thus it will take a year or two, he opined.
According to István Pócza, fuel prices are an issue that could easily be addressed, but Tisza had previously spoken of a price of 480 forints, putting himself in a difficult position.
Another option is to address the utility bill cuts, which the European Commission has also consistently criticized. Either they abolish the entire program, which would have serious social consequences, or they implement a tiered system, he said.
Citing analyst István Pócza’s observations regarding the Tisza Party’s two-thirds majority, he opined that it cannot be ruled out that the Tisza Party will make changes to the local government system and call local elections as early as this fall, “to cement their hold on local governments, and then they can gradually introduce the unpopular measures over the long term.”
Attila Tibor Nagy believes that Péter Magyar is not expected to exercise restraint either. Moreover, he is capable of removing from office those public officials whom he already named during the campaign.
“All it takes is an amendment to the Fundamental Law, and that would be sufficient,” he stated.
The two political analysts agreed that the constitutional process should not be rushed, and that the markets are primarily interested not in the person of the president, but in whether economic policy and the legal environment will finally become predictable.
According to Attila Tibor Nagy, it is not good for a government to view and steer the country solely through the lens of business interests. He noted, however, that if the neoliberal-minded István Kapitány is given too prominent a role within the government, then “a kind of distorted perspective could emerge.”
According to István Pócza, if a government cannot present an economic vision—whether due to its own failings or the international environment—it puts itself in a very bad position. From this perspective, the Tisza Party will also face a huge challenge, which is why he expects the “hastily assembled” Tisza camp to fall apart.
Supporters attending the Tisza Party election night gathering at Batthyány Square on April 12, 2026. Photo: MTI/Hegedüs Róbert.
Attila Tibor Nagy also noted that the Tisza Party’s camp is heterogeneous, comprising left-liberals, national radicals, greens, and social democrats; he, too, expects that it will not be possible to keep it fully united.
He added that, in his view, the current government term has been the weakest of all Orbán governments. There has been no meaningful economic growth for three years, and in his view, Fidesz made a mistake when it left the European People’s Party in 2021, because as a result, its ability to assert its interests in European politics plummeted to such an extent that the following year the European Commission dared to launch the rule-of-law procedure that led to the withdrawal of EU funds. “And it is clear that without EU funds, the economy is not really moving forward,” he said.
Via hirado.hu; Featured photo: MTI/Illyés Tibor
The post Analysts Predict Economic Strain and Political Challenges for Tisza Party Government appeared first on Hungary Today.
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