For those chasing the American dream, a new study has some insightful information about what it takes to attain it – along with data that might determine the best states to set down roots.
Declining marriages and broken families are crippling predominantly blue states, while red states thrive with better economic mobility, education and lower crime, according to a 2026 Family Structure Index released Tuesday by the Ohio-based Center for Christian Virtue.
In partnership with the Institute for Family Studies, the report examined three core factors: marriage rates, family stability and fertility rates. It also tracked cost of living, religious participation, family instability, and education levels, finding wide gaps across states that affect the “health and attainability of the American Dream.”
“This report should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers and community leaders across the country,” CCV President Aaron Baer told Fox News Digital.
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Baer added that government programs alone “can’t replace strong families.”
“No amount of paid family leave, childcare subsidies, or social experimentation will rebuild the foundation that families provide,” he said. “If those policies were enough, states like California and New York would be leading the way. The data show otherwise. If we’re serious about reducing poverty and expanding opportunity, we need to strengthen the institutions that have always made America strong: faith, family, and economic freedom.”
The report finds that only 1 in 3 Americans believe in the American Dream.
The index clearly shows geographic divides. Red states like Utah rank first in family stability, while blue states like New Mexico trail behind.
Rocky Mountain and Great Plains states generally have higher marriage and fertility rates, according to the report.
Behind Utah, the rest of the top 5 states for family stability were Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota.
The bottom five states: Vermont, Nevada, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and New Mexico.
These differences are now impacting where people choose to live, according to the report.
South Carolina, for example, has seen marriage rates rise and its ranking on this list improve; while Hawaii has fallen as marriage rates decline and housing costs remain high.
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As these pressures grow, more Americans are leaving high-cost blue states for more affordable red states.
“Strong families are the foundation of a healthy society,” Baer said in a press release. “This report shows that when family structure weakens, the effects ripple outward to our schools, our communities and our economy. But it also makes clear that this is not inevitable. There is a solution and a path forward.”
Notably, the report highlights a clear link between family structure and economic outcomes.
States with more married parents saw lower child poverty rates, better educational outcomes, less crime and stronger economies, while those with higher shares of single-parent households face long-term challenges.
Other contributing factors also emerged.
States with higher religious participation saw higher birth rates, while expensive housing markets are tied to lower fertility rates, according to the report. Education also plays a role as more college-educated adults are more likely to form stable families due to economic security.
Since 2000, the national index score has dropped from 100 to 87.3, signaling a decline in family structure, the report added. While marriage rates have stabilized in recent years, fertility rates continue to fall and pose lasting constraints for future generations.
However, these trends do vary across both red and blue states, according to a CCV spokesperson, who said the report “also underscores that these trends are not confined to any one region or political ideology.”
The findings have prompted calls for policy changes focusing on strengthening families and economic conditions.
“The lesson going forward is clear,” Baer said. “Red and blue states alike should advance policies that make housing more affordable, ensure good-paying jobs are within reach, keep taxes low, and expand access to quality education.”
Baer added this comes down to the impact of stable households.
Stable two-parent homes are linked to higher college graduation rates and a better shot at reaching the middle class, the report said. Married adults are also about 80% less likely to live in poverty than single adults.
“Family structure is one of the strongest predictors we have for whether children and communities are thriving,” University of Virginia sociology professor and lead researcher Brad Wilcox said in a press release. “States that are doing well in this area have markedly lower levels of child poverty, as well as higher rates of economic mobility and homeownership.”
For many, economic realities have continued to fuel skepticism about the American Dream. Since 1980, fewer adults ages 25 to 54 have been able to buy homes, and only about 50% of those born in the 1980s earn more than their parents—down from 90% among those born in the 1940s.
Marriage rates fell sharply from 2000 to 2010, followed by a 17% drop over the next decade, as “upward mobility has been cut nearly in half over two generations,” the report said.
“This isn’t just about statistics,” Baer said. “It’s about real children and real futures. If we want to see our nation thrive, we have to be serious about strengthening marriage and supporting families in every community.”
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