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Just like four years ago, the international media are predicting victory for the left-wing opposition coalition over the Hungarian government parties led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the parliamentary elections scheduled for April. These poll numbers may not reflect electoral realities on the gorund though, and Fidesz actually has a realistic chance of winning, writes Polish political analyst Maciej Szymanowski for the news portal Do Rzeczy.
In some polls, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party has had a double-digit lead for months. However, this is only according to those public opinion research institutes which, like the often-cited Republikon Institute in Poland, also gave the opposition a 10-20 percentage point lead over the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition four years ago. However, other pollsters at the same time predict a clear advantage for the ruling coalition. Just as in Poland, it is no longer surprising that being the favorite in the polls and winning the presidential election are, in a sense, two different things.
Maciej Szymanowski. Photo: Courtesy of Maciej Szymanowski
The Tisza party has only stood for election once in its history, participating in the 2024 European Parliament elections (30% of the vote, seven MEPs out of the 21 seats allocated to Hungary). In the local elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, it fielded candidates only in Budapest (also with 30% support), consistently avoiding participation in by-elections to the Hungarian parliament and individual local governments, which can hardly be interpreted as anything other than fear of defeat.
An interesting fact about this year’s parliamentary elections in Hungary, which for some reason is not being reported in Poland, is that Fidesz may win again.”
Despite years in power, Viktor Orbán’s party has retained its greatest asset: internal unity. Against this backdrop, Tisza remains a one-man show, undoubtedly led by the extremely media-savvy Péter Magyar, who, however, loses out to the Hungarian prime minister in terms of competence.
Looking at serious sociological data, the Fidesz-KDNP coalition is not very popular among citizens under the age of 40. On the other hand, when it comes to people in the 40-60 age group, it has a slight advantage. It is only among people aged 60+ that it transforms into a dominance close to a 7:1 ratio. Tisza’s voters clearly belong to the younger generation and are concentrated in the capital and its agglomeration, as well as in several larger cities. This is not good news for Magyar’s party, precisely because of the single-member constituencies scattered throughout the country. In addition, as is well known, voter turnout among older people is usually higher than among young people.
Has the hype peaked? Péter Magyar’s lack of a memorable electoral program is becoming tangible only a few weeks before elections. Photo: MTI/Máthé Zoltán
The Tisza party has managed to turn this year’s elections into a kind of referendum for or against the government, which is undoubtedly a major achievement. This is especially true in the context of the fairly obvious social fatigue with Viktor Orbán’s long-standing rule, particularly among younger voters who, for as long as they can remember, have simply never known any other prime minister. In addition, the same party shot itself in the foot by imposing a bizarre ban on public statements by its own candidates for parliament during the campaign. In the context of the party’s ranks being based on very diverse political circles – from post-communist, through liberal and libertarian, to former members of Fidesz, which includes Péter Magyar himself – this resulted in a cacophony of messages on every issue.
Interestingly, Tisza’s party program published in February does not include a section on Hungarian foreign policy. In total, the 240-page document mentions the “USA” five times, “Ukraine” three times, “Russia” 17 times, “China” – zero, “EU” – 196.
This confirms the opinion that should he win, Tisza’s leader would not continue the sovereigntist foreign policy for which Hungary has been known in recent years.
Péter Magyar is perceived as a clearly worse candidate for prime minister than Viktor Orbán (by a ratio of about 30% to about 50%). This is partly because, until he became party president in the summer of 2024 at the age of 43, Magyar had never led a team of people in his life. The manner of his separation from his wife, the former Minister of Justice, and his later partner Evelin Vogel, whom he secretly recorded, as he had done with his wife, remains a significant burden on his image to this day. In addition, Péter Magyar not only often strays from the truth but it is also often difficult to understand why he says what he says.
Viktor Orbán’s confidence in electoral victory is not rattled by his young opponent. If it is, he is hiding it pretty well. MTI/Fischer Zoltán
The war in Ukraine has not ended, nor has a ceasefire been achieved. Military or financial support for Ukraine, the so-called fast track to EU membership, remains a very unpopular issue in Hungary. Manfred Weber and the European People’s Party (EPP), the main foreign mentors of the Tisza party and Péter Magyar personally, who are currently setting the tone for various pro-Ukrainian activities, are therefore not as much of an added value to the campaign as it might seem at first glance. And although the participation of Hungarians living abroad is somewhat overestimated, it is likely that the candidates from the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition will once again receive the vast majority of the approximately half a million votes cast.
Against the backdrop of Fidesz’ internal unity, the Tisza’ party remains a one-man show, a spectacle dominated by the extremely media-savvy Péter Magyar, who, by most opinions, loses out to the Hungarian prime minister in terms of competence. For the above reasons, the opposition in Hungary will play on extreme social polarization and emotions in general. The result of this is already evident today in the withdrawal of virtually all smaller opposition parties from the elections. This does not bode well for the country’s internal stability in view of the fact that the number of stable countries in Central Europe has been rapidly declining in recent years, concludes his thoughts Maciej Szymanowski.
Maciej Szymanowski is an associate professor at the Péter Pázmány Catholic University, he has formerly served as Director of the Wacław Felczak Polish–Hungarian Cooperation Institute in Warsaw.
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p style=”text-align: justify”>Via Do Rzeczy; Featured Image: MTI/Kiss Gábor
The post FIDESZ’s Keeps its Internal Unity, the TISZA Party Remains a One-man Show, Writes Polish Expert appeared first on Hungary Today.
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