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Despite the successful advocacy for the interests of the Hungarian Germans by their parliamentary spokesperson, later Member of Parliament Imre Ritter (2014–2026), the German ethnic group will most likely be unable to send a full-fledged representative to the Hungarian National Assembly in 2026. The number of registered voters required for this is shrinking rapidly, writes Bence Bauer, director of the German-Hungarian Institute for European Cooperation at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium.
Under the 2011 electoral reform, the 13 indigenous minorities residing in Hungary have the opportunity to send a spokesperson to the Hungarian National Assembly even with just a single vote. If the number of votes reaches 25 percent of the total required for a political party to hold a regular parliamentary seat, the spokesperson becomes a regular member of parliament with full rights (a so-called “enhanced” or “privileged” mandate). To date, only the German minority has achieved this in 2018 and 2022. From 2014 to 2018, Imre Ritter served only as a spokesperson, just like the representatives of the other national minorities. But now this full-fledged mandate is in jeopardy; by all accounts, the Germans will not be able to achieve it in 2026. If you wish to vote for a nationality list, you must register for it in advance (or leave your existing registration unchanged); in this case, you do not have a second vote for a party list. If a full-fledged seat is won, it is deducted from the 93 list seats held by the Hungarian parties, leaving them with 92 seats. For more details on Hungarian electoral law, see a comprehensive essay with practical examples – HERE.
While a total of 33,168 voters were registered as Hungarian Germans in 2018, this number dropped to just 31,856 in 2022, representing a 4 percent decline—or a decrease of 1,312 people. The decline was even more pronounced in terms of actual votes cast. In 2018, the list of the Hungarian German Regional Self-Government still had 26,477 voters (79.8 percent voter turnout), but in 2022 only 24,630 (77.3 percent voter turnout), which amounts to a 7 percent decline, or 1,847 voters. In 2018, exactly 23,829 votes were needed for a reduced-threshold seat, whereas in 2022, 23,085 were required. This threshold depends on the voter turnout of the rest of the population and the configuration of the d’Hondt matrix relevant for seat allocation. It can therefore never be determined precisely in advance; it is dynamic. However, it can be assumed that it is likely to be higher with a higher voter turnout. On the other hand, it is almost certain that at least 23,000 votes will be required for the seat in 2026 as well.
The downward trend that has emerged in recent years could now become extremely dangerous for the Hungarian Germans. If the decline in the number of voters had continued at the same rate as in recent years, the race for seats would have been a nail-biter. This means that many more Hungarian Germans would have had to register in order to safely clear the threshold. Recently, however, quite the opposite has occurred: an increasing number of already registered Hungarian-German voters have deregistered in order to cast their vote for a political party of their choice. This preference is unknown, but it is not entirely far-fetched to assume that a corresponding campaign by a major opposition party may have been the deciding factor. The number of registered voters stood at exactly 24,971 on the morning of April 2, meaning that 6,885 people—about 22 percent—have deregistered. Registration remains open until 4:00 p.m. on April 2. Unregistration, in turn, is possible until 4:00 p.m. on April 9. To reach the coveted 23,000 votes, the registered Hungarian Germans would have to go to the polls in a disciplined and united manner and achieve a voter turnout of 92 percent. By all reasonable estimates, this is unlikely to happen.
Despite these difficulties, the positive outlook is that the Roma, with their 46,930 registered voters, will likely have no trouble clearing the threshold and being awarded a reserved parliamentary seat. They will then, in all likelihood, be the only ethnic group to hold such a parliamentary seat. The other nationalities will then appoint a spokesperson. The spokespersons for the individual ethnic groups and the full-fledged representative will form the Committee on Ethnic Affairs in the Hungarian National Assembly. The previous Hungarian-German representative was the former chair of this committee. He thus represented not only his own ethnic group but also all the others as well. Now the Germans will have to hand over this role to the Roma representative. It is fitting and right that the largest indigenous minority in Hungary, the Roma, now have full representation in the Hungarian Parliament and will also represent the other ethnic groups.
The Hungarian Germans now face a difficult moral choice: Should they stick to their registration out of principle despite these adverse circumstances and knowingly throw away their vote? Or should they take advantage of the opportunity to deregister by 4:00 p.m. on April 9 and still cast their vote for a political party of their choice? The initial registration was, after all, done in the hope of being able to send a full-fledged Hungarian-German representative; for this reason, many chose not to vote for a party list. Deregistration is also possible online and takes less than five minutes. Everyone should decide for themselves.
Featured photo: Wikimedia, Globetrotter19
The post What Will Happen to the German Mandate? appeared first on Hungary Today.
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