As global attention remains fixed on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a petroleum geologist is warning that the more consequential energy story may be unfolding thousands of feet underground — and could continue long after any political agreement ends the fighting.
Art Berman, a petroleum geologist and energy consultant with more than four decades of industry experience, told Fox News Digital that millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remain shut in and warned that restoring those wells is far more complicated than simply reopening the strategic waterway.
„This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues,“ Berman said.
„The bigger story and the more important one long term is that 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production is currently shut in and world production is down about 10 million barrels a day,“ Berman explained.
„We can move tankers around and we can obsess about, you know, are there 4 million barrels getting through or are there 6 million or 9 million or whatever the right number is,“ he added. „But eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil.“
A White House official, speaking on background, pointed to the sharp decline in oil prices following the signing of the MOU and said the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the U.S. naval blockade in full effect.
Berman’s estimate of Gulf shut-ins is broadly consistent with the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency. The IEA said in its Aug. 12, 2026, Oil Market Report, „Gulf oil production rose by a further 2.5 mb/d in July to 23.9 mb/d, still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels.“
Global oil supply remained 6.3 million bpd below year-earlier levels, according to the agency.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration offers a somewhat different estimate.
EIA assessed production shut-ins at an average 5.5 million bpd in July, while warning that continuing constraints on Hormuz transit had forced the agency to increase its forecast for shut-in production in August. EIA expects production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict conditions in early 2027, but says some Gulf producers may not regain their previous output during its forecast period.
The distinction is important because much of the public discussion has centered on what the industry calls the midstream problem — whether tankers can safely transport oil through Hormuz — while Berman argues that the upstream problem of producing the oil itself could prove more enduring.
„The very last thing in the world I ever want to do is to shut in a well,“ Berman told Fox News Digital.
Restarting a well requires restoring communication between equipment at the surface and reservoirs thousands of feet underground, he explained, and extended shutdowns can create complications inside the reservoir and well.
„This is not like turning on a switch for a light bulb,“ Berman said. „It’s a complicated, high-risk, relatively long-term process, and we don’t know the outcome.“
Berman estimated that roughly 80% of affected wells could return close to their previous production levels, although he said that could take weeks or months. He said many of the remainder could require additional engineering work and some could ultimately produce at lower rates.
„Some of that production will never come back,“ he predicted.
Other energy analysts agree that restarting Gulf production presents substantial technical challenges. But Wood Mackenzie is more optimistic than Berman about the ultimate recovery.
Its analysis projects that fields affected by the Hormuz closure could return to approximately 70% of their previous production within three months and 90% within six months, assuming a controlled restart. The final roughly 1 million bpd could take considerably longer.
Berman also warned against assuming that a ceasefire or political agreement would immediately restore pre-war energy flows.
Shipowners, insurers and crews would first have to become confident that tankers could safely navigate the waterway, while other logistical and security issues could continue even after governments reached an agreement.
„A simple political agreement doesn’t mean the problem’s over,“ Berman said.
Berman’s argument goes considerably further than predicting a slow oil-market recovery.
He contends that the Persian Gulf conflict represents a fundamental shock to the global energy and economic system — one whose consequences will persist even after the immediate crisis ends.
Asked about his comparison with the COVID-19 pandemic, Berman told Fox News Digital that the scale of oil production affected by the current crisis makes it comparable to the largest economic disruptions of recent years.
„This is not just a news cycle,“ Berman said. „This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues.“
IRAN DEAL CLOCK HITS ZERO AS TRUMP DEMANDS ‘WHITE FLAG’ WITH NEW PRESSURE CAMPAIGN LOOMING
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, but Berman argues that does not isolate American consumers from the disruption.
„The oil market and the refined products market is global,“ he told Fox News Digital.
Berman noted that U.S. refineries require different grades of crude to produce the country’s mix of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products, meaning domestic production alone cannot eliminate America’s exposure to international markets.
„The problem for the U.S. isn’t that we don’t have enough oil, we almost do,“ Berman said. „It’s that the oil we have isn’t the right kind“ for everything American refineries produce.
EIA reported July 15 that Hormuz disruptions had already pushed international buyers toward alternative sources of petroleum products, contributing to higher U.S. refinery margins, production and exports.
Whether that recovery proceeds as EIA expects or encounters the technical obstacles Berman warns about could determine how long the economic consequences of the conflict linger after the shooting stops.
For Berman, the question is no longer simply when tankers return to Hormuz. It is whether the global energy system that emerges afterward will ever operate quite the way it did before.
The White House pushed back on concerns that the disruption represents a lasting threat to U.S. energy security, pointing to record American production and blaming Iran for instability in the critical shipping corridor.
„Thanks to President Trump, the United States is now the world’s number-one producer and exporter of oil and gas. Record oil and gas production strengthens our energy independence and national security,“ White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital.
„The Iranian regime’s terrorist actions in the Strait of Hormuz have proven that our allies need to invest in reliable, affordable, and secure energy sources and advance new partnerships with the United States that enhance the world’s energy security,“ Rogers added.
Fox News Digital has reached out to the White House, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Defense Intelligence Agency for comment.
Hormuz crisis hides a deeper oil threat that could outlast the war 2026
IUSTITIA.BG – Investigations 2009-2026 2026-08-23 10:10:56
Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law
