GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its prediction to 3.9% as booming AI investments offset a hit from war in the Middle East.
The Geneva-based trade body says global trade chugged along at a hearty pace, as supply chains adapted and AI-related spending poured into to provide “a powerful boost to goods trade.”
The revised forecast marks a big jump from an initial WTO forecast in this spring for 1.9% growth for merchandise trade growth — the figure excludes services trade. The trade body forecast growth next year of 4.1% — up from 2.9% predicted in March.
“The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods,” WTO said. Trade of oil and gas and fertilizer through the Persian Gulf was shaken after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February.
WTO said merchandise trade grew 3.5% in the first half of the year, powered by the artificial intelligence market.
“Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 2025,” WTO said.
Liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East fell by 47% in the first half of the year, while crude oil exports dropped by nearly a quarter, WTO said. But shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline to roughly 1% for LNG and about 6% for crude.
WTO said it expects global GDP to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, even though it predicted that the Middle East conflict will continue to weigh on trade through higher energy prices and transport route disruptions.
WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East 2026
IUSTITIA.BG – Investigations 2009-2026 2026-10-08 13:39:23
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